Why did US homicides spike in 2020 and then decline rapidly in 2023 and 2024?

In 2020, the United States saw the fastest increase in murders ever recorded in the country’s history. Analyses indicate that the surge in homicides was directly connected to local unemployment and school closures in low-income areas. Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods during March and early April 2020 had greater homicide increases from May to December that year, on average. The persistence of these changes can also explain why murders remained high in 2021 and 2022 before falling in late 2023 and 2024.

On January 15, Brookings Metro scholars Hanna Love, Rhett Morris, and Rohit Acharya shared findings from their new report exploring these trends. After, Brookings Metro Senior Fellow Andre Perry moderated an engaging panel featuring local leaders discussing how cities across the country can use this research to prevent future spikes in murder and decrease violence levels even further.