What Happened to the Great U.S. Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring

Martin Neil Baily and

Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow Emeritus - Economic Studies, Center on Regulation and Markets

Robert Z. Lawrence

RZL

Robert Z. Lawrence

Discussants: Daniel E. Sichel and

Daniel E. Sichel Professor of Economics - Wellesley College

Frank Levy

FL

Frank Levy

THE BUSINESS CYCLE recovery of the past few years has been an unusual
one. In particular, payroll employment since the trough of the 2001 recession
has been remarkably weak compared with previous recessions—a
point illustrated in figure 1.2 The decline in payroll employment from the
peak in March 2001 to the trough in November of the same year was modest,
but employment continued to fall for the next twenty-one months,
ending up just over a million jobs below the trough before starting to recover. This contrasts with most previous recessions, in which job
growth following the trough was strong. The aftermath of the previous
recession, that of 1990–91, was also characterized by relatively weak job
performance, as figure 1 also shows. But the jobs picture since 2001 has
been much weaker even than that “jobless recovery.”