Super Tuesday: It’s all about November now

On Super Tuesday, 15 states and American Samoa will hold contests for 1,420 delegates to the Democratic Convention and 854 delegates to the Republican Convention. This is the biggest single day of delegates in the primary and caucus schedule, and while the delegates won on Super Tuesday can’t clinch the nomination for someone, they can get them very close. A Democratic candidate needs 1,968 delegates to win the nomination, and a Republican candidate needs 1,215 delegates to win the nomination. The expectation is that both President Biden and former President Trump will come out of Super Tuesday with an overwhelming number of delegates, which is why this Super Tuesday is, for both parties, more about the general election than it is about the nomination race.

Let’s start with the Republicans. In spite of his age and his tendency to mix up names, in spite of his extreme statements such as the one inviting Putin to invade European countries who don’t pay their NATO dues, in spite of his 91 indictments—Trump is winning primaries, caucuses, and delegates at a steady clip. His only opposition comes from Nikki Haley, who so far has managed to garner between 26% and 42% of the vote—largely from Independents, some disaffected Republicans, and college-educated voters. On Super Tuesday, more than half of the primaries are open primaries, meaning that anyone can come and vote. Haley has won her first contest—the District of Columbia’s primary—and could do very well in some areas.

As for accumulating delegates, many delegates to the Republican Convention are awarded by congressional district, not by state. Haley may pick up some delegates by winning districts with large numbers of college-educated voters. In some other states, the at-large delegates—usually around 25% of the delegation—are awarded proportionally, so Haley could pick up delegates there too. But the Republicans also have winner-take-all states where if a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, that candidate gets all the delegates. The bottom line—Haley is unlikely to win the nomination. She is also unlikely to win enough delegates to cause trouble at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee—as Senator Ted Cruz’s delegates attempted to do at the 2016 Republican Convention.

But the significance of the Haley vote is about November, not July. From anecdotal evidence, it looks like the Haley vote might be very much an anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Haley vote.

Some of her voters may vote for Trump in the end. Others may not vote, or they might write in a candidate, and still others might actually vote for Biden. Over the weekend, Haley hedged when asked if she would support Trump as the nominee, which might keep some of her voters from moving to Trump in November.

While Haley’s numbers are small in what is shaping up to be a very close race, the distance between winning and losing a critical swing state is small as well. And thus, for Trump, the Haley vote could well turn out to be the difference between winning and losing a key state.

Let’s take the swing state of Michigan for example. In the February 27 Michigan primary, Haley got 296,328 votes. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by 154,188 votes. Haley voters could very well provide Biden with the margins he needs to beat Trump in Michigan.

But the primaries so far have shown trouble on the Democratic side as well. There, President Biden, also an older candidate with a tendency to mix up names, finds himself with two unpopular wars on his hands and an economy that looks good by the numbers but bad to the voters. In Michigan, his biggest problem was not the two individuals on the ballot but a protest campaign against his support of Israel that urged voters to vote “uncommitted.” (Although this vote only amounted to 13% of the total vote, it was still larger in sheer numbers than uncommitted votes in prior years.) Uncommitted won 101,436 votes, and under Democratic Party rules for winning delegates, they will be awarded two delegates to the Democratic Convention in Chicago this summer.¹

What will those voters do in November? If they vote for Trump, stay home, or vote for a third-party candidate, they will make a serious dent in the number of votes Biden needs to beat Trump again.

The success of Uncommitted in Michigan has prompted others to organize voters to vote uncommitted. As in Michigan, it will probably be primarily a protest vote, but unlike in Michigan, where Arab American communities fueled the historically large numbers of uncommitted voters, subsequent states don’t have the same large concentration of Arab Americans. Thus, the results may not be as robust.

The biggest night of the primary season may turn out to be our first glimpse into the general election. Haley voters could swing a key state away from Trump; uncommitted voters could swing a key state away from Biden.